2023 Stawell 120m Open Gift

You’re the man tim

timrosen35 wrote:I can assure you 6-1 (or 6 to 1) is $7. There’s no debate there.

Also a $10 bet at 7-2 returns you $45. You get the $35 you’ve won plus the initial $10 stake. So 7-2 is the same as $4.50 not $3.50.

Hope you’re tipping is better than your betting knowledge

And I’m telling you the odds of these athletes yet you’re not listening

Of course you add the stake invested, so 7.-2  is still a return of  $3.5 for every $1 dollar invested.
6-1 is really $6 return for every $1 invested, but way only when adding on the skate invested is $7.

Odds are $ are not the same. Odds represent that probable chance that event occurring.

Odds coming out on Sportsbet tim?

Hey quickness, Sportsbet don’t seem interested in putting a market up. Last year they didn’t even do one until after the heats. I haven’t helped them set a market in recent years.

No Jake Ireland in your top 20 Tim? Interesting… can’t wait to see your Womens Top 20.

Nketia
Morris
Dunmall
Perris
Endale
Antonino

Rizzo and Lacey the next in
That’s my final, purely based off VAL form.

However, if Tarrant and Bonney keep their marks, they might knock a couple out.

Vaitohi, Thomas, King, Loukeris, Despard are the best of the rest.

Surely the handicap for Bonney is wrong. 6m for a guy that has just turned 21 and has never run in the VAL before and just ran 21.28 recently for 200m and beat Alex Beck over 400m this week at the Brisbane GP is absurd. Yes his 100m PB is just 10.80 but that was 2 years ago and he hardly runs them. Can’t see it being fair to runners like Bennett, Hanna, Acquaro and all the other regulars.

Not sure the handicap for Tarrant is right either.

I thought Jasper Thomas not getting the lift and then having the pull applied is really harsh.
And when you compare his treatment to the handicaps of Bonney and Tarrant it beggars belief.

naughtycorner wrote:

Soon to retire wrote:Someone's clearly taking the pi55.
Must be hitting refresh and voting for themselves.

Must be, you'd hope not though

They gone full-throttle on Nathan, I heard a whisper that his Murray Perch's nephew!?! Murray did say he was moving into coaching?!?

On a serious note, my tip is Endale.

His been set for this race from the time that he started racing in the VAL, the selfless act by Robbie Spencer to handover the reins to Johnny Hilditch to ensure the right or better environment has worked wonders, it would be a much deserved victory for all.

Good luck to all, he haven't seen a smokie for a few years, but given how even the field is this year it might be the year of the smokie.

timrosen35 wrote:I can assure you 6-1 (or 6 to 1) is $7. There’s no debate there.

Also a $10 bet at 7-2 returns you $45. You get the $35 you’ve won plus the initial $10 stake. So 7-2 is the same as $4.50 not $3.50.

Hope your tipping is better than your betting knowledge

And I’m telling you the odds of these athletes yet you’re not listening

Tim othy, wouldn't a 6-1 give a $12 return if 6 dollars are initially placed? I believe they should bring back more betting rings like the days of old and have them all line up the hill. Also think they should bring back more external entertainment. Bring back the lovely 4X dancers of old, and face painting! If not, ill get up there on easter Monday or at the Calcutta and shake it myself! Still very glad this is a wide open final, still backing Saye, Rizzo in second.

Nick De Fibre wrote:

naughtycorner wrote:

Soon to retire wrote:Someone's clearly taking the pi55.
Must be hitting refresh and voting for themselves.

Must be, you'd hope not though

They gone full-throttle on Nathan, I heard a whisper that his Murray Perch's nephew!?! Murray did say he was moving into coaching?!?

On a serious note, my tip is Endale.

His been set for this race from the time that he started racing in the VAL, the selfless act by Robbie Spencer to handover the reins to Johnny Hilditch to ensure the right or better environment has worked wonders, it would be a much deserved victory for all.

Good luck to all, he haven't seen a smokie for a few years, but given how even the field is this year it might be the year of the smokie.

g

Give us ya biggest smokey nick

Hello ASC, NC, SF, and JH.

Whilst I appreciate the mildly humorous, yet extremely confusing posting this evening, it seems we have gotten on a tangent to what this thread was originally made for! I'd encourage you to make a new thread and talk about the pastimes of Stawell if you wish. Lets try to keep this one to tips/predictions only.

Cheers,
Admin.

quickness wrote:

Nick De Fibre wrote:

naughtycorner wrote:

Soon to retire wrote:Someone's clearly taking the pi55.
Must be hitting refresh and voting for themselves.

Must be, you'd hope not though

They gone full-throttle on Nathan, I heard a whisper that his Murray Perch's nephew!?! Murray did say he was moving into coaching?!?

On a serious note, my tip is Endale.

His been set for this race from the time that he started racing in the VAL, the selfless act by Robbie Spencer to handover the reins to Johnny Hilditch to ensure the right or better environment has worked wonders, it would be a much deserved victory for all.

Good luck to all, he haven't seen a smokie for a few years, but given how even the field is this year it might be the year of the smokie.

g

Give us ya biggest smokey nick

My biggest smokie is off a handicap of between 3.25m-8.25m, is from interstate and may or may-not have run at Stawell in the past.

We know you love Mitchell O’Neill, maybe he’s your smokey. Can he go past Saye Morris though. What do you think Nicky D Fib

Dwight K Schrute
Dunder Mifflin Scranton

Dwight Schrute wrote:We know you love Mitchell O’Neill, maybe he’s your smokey. Can he go past Saye Morris though. What do you think Nicky D Fib

Dwight K Schrute
Dunder Mifflin Scranton

Nice selection DS, but Mitch was my smokie last year as such with exposed form now isn't the athlete I'm thinking might cause an upset.

This runner come from left field once before and might be set to do it again, I could be completely off the mark though, so I'll stick with my top tip in Endale as Saye can't catch him based on Beachside 70m runs.

At Frankston Morris gave Mekonnen 1.5m start on semi 1 and beat him by a metre. Morris went on to win in 7.55 in final. That’s 2.5m clear of Endale’s best run for the day.
At Beachside Saye runs from 0.75m (3m behind Endale). Best run 7.88. Endale runs 7.74 in final, just under 1.5m clear of Saye’s run.
This all indicates Morris can catch Mekonnen in the Gift, but winner between these will be determined by who can run the last 20m out.

naughtycorner wrote:

timrosen35 wrote:I can assure you 6-1 (or 6 to 1) is $7. There’s no debate there.

Also a $10 bet at 7-2 returns you $45. You get the $35 you’ve won plus the initial $10 stake. So 7-2 is the same as $4.50 not $3.50.

Hope your tipping is better than your betting knowledge

And I’m telling you the odds of these athletes yet you’re not listening

Tim othy, wouldn't a 6-1 give a $12 return if 6 dollars are initially placed? I believe they should bring back more betting rings like the days of old and have them all line up the hill. Also think they should bring back more external entertainment. Bring back the lovely 4X dancers of old, and face painting! If not, ill get up there on easter Monday or at the Calcutta and shake it myself! Still very glad this is a wide open final, still backing Saye, Rizzo in second.

Bring back Jane Bunn. She hosted fashions on the field the year the XXXX dancers were there but only those of us in the Ballarat local news area knew who she was back then.

History tells us that trying to convert 70m runs to 120 runs is not accurate or reliable at all. the 120 is a completely different race and different mind set. Guys who are more comfortable over that linger distance, run the first 70 of a 120 better as they are more relaxed knowing they have the full distance to work.

Can we make a topic on who’s winning the 400 and 800 women’s and men’s? or we just care about the gift?

Courage wrote:History tells us that trying to convert 70m runs to 120 runs is not accurate or reliable at all. the 120 is a completely different race and different mind set. Guys who are more comfortable over that linger distance, run the first 70 of a 120 better as they are more relaxed knowing they have the full distance to work.

Not reliable. But despard did it 2018.
Euroa 70m gift win into stawell.

Soon to retire wrote:

Courage wrote:History tells us that trying to convert 70m runs to 120 runs is not accurate or reliable at all. the 120 is a completely different race and different mind set. Guys who are more comfortable over that linger distance, run the first 70 of a 120 better as they are more relaxed knowing they have the full distance to work.

Not reliable. But despard did it 2018.
Euroa 70m gift win into stawell.  

And ? As you said, not reliable. I’m sure lots of other people that year also won 70m races but didn’t go on to win Stawell.

I could also name kerr, chico, rizzo, Ed ware - all those precious winners also won a 70m race the year they won Stawell. And the guys who were in the finals also won some 70’s, and probably beat the eventual winner in some of those races. The 120 on Easter Monday is a completely different race.

Btw I’m putting 100 on ur man saye to win, because I think he is gonna be very impressive.

FACT - Endale runs out the 120m better than Saye. The question is, is Saye going to be far enough in front of Endale with 20m to go. Or does the Endale ‘Thunderstorm’ Mekonnen run back over the top of him.

Dwight K Schrute
Dunder Mifflin Scranton

Fact. Personal attacks are not needed Calcutta. You enjoy your night now.

Socks off Sanchez wrote:At Frankston Morris gave Mekonnen 1.5m start on semi 1 and beat him by a metre. Morris went on to win in 7.55 in final. That’s 2.5m clear of Endale’s best run for the day.
At Beachside Saye runs from 0.75m (3m behind Endale). Best run 7.88. Endale runs 7.74 in final, just under 1.5m clear of Saye’s run.
This all indicates Morris can catch Mekonnen in the Gift, but winner between these will be determined by who can run the last 20m out.

Lets look at all runs at Beachside over 70m for Endale & Saye which are as follows:

Endale- Final at 7.56 (7.62), Semi at 7.70 (7.74), Heat at 7.66 (7.78)
Saye- Semi at 7.78 (7.90), Heat at 7.75 (7.88)

Based on best run for the day for both athletes using Raw Times we have Endale 2/10ths of a second up on Saye, so let's call that 1.50m after 70m. Difference in handicaps was 3m so Saye has taken 1.50m off Endale after 70m.

Then let's look at handicaps, Saye has 5m at Stawell & had 0.75m at Beachside, Endale has 8.25m at Stawell & had 3.75m at Beachside. Saye goes up 4.25m whilst Endale goes up 4.50m.

Taking into account handicap movements, Endale is now 1.75m in front of Saye with 50m to run.......... I know who I'm backing fellas.

Rizzo to become a 2x stawell gift champion
Endale for a close 2nd on the line with Morris 3rd
Vaitohi 4th
Dunmall 5th
Antonino 6th

Nick De Fibre wrote:

Socks off Sanchez wrote:At Frankston Morris gave Mekonnen 1.5m start on semi 1 and beat him by a metre. Morris went on to win in 7.55 in final. That’s 2.5m clear of Endale’s best run for the day.
At Beachside Saye runs from 0.75m (3m behind Endale). Best run 7.88. Endale runs 7.74 in final, just under 1.5m clear of Saye’s run.
This all indicates Morris can catch Mekonnen in the Gift, but winner between these will be determined by who can run the last 20m out.

Lets look at all runs at Beachside over 70m for Endale & Saye which are as follows:

Endale- Final at 7.56 (7.62), Semi at 7.70 (7.74), Heat at 7.66 (7.78)
Saye- Semi at 7.78 (7.90), Heat at 7.75 (7.88)

Based on best run for the day for both athletes using Raw Times we have Endale 2/10ths of a second up on Saye, so let's call that 1.50m after 70m. Difference in handicaps was 3m so Saye has taken 1.50m off Endale after 70m.

Then let's look at handicaps, Saye has 5m at Stawell & had 0.75m at Beachside, Endale has 8.25m at Stawell & had 3.75m at Beachside. Saye goes up 4.25m whilst Endale goes up 4.50m.

Taking into account handicap movements, Endale is now 1.75m in front of Saye with 50m to run.......... I know who I'm backing fellas.

So by completely ignoring the Frankston results, which clearly Morris was set for Endale looks ahead on Beachside final run.
My point was it will be a close race if you only compare 70 runs they both competed in.