2023 Stawell 120m Open Gift

Just under two weeks until the 141st running of the Powercor Stawell Gift. It's the race we've all been waiting for! Lets keep this thread to tips/predictions only, in recent weeks the conversations on the polls have been getting off track.

144 entries this year, 18 heats if my maths is correct. Eddie Nketia starts as the backmarker off the mark of scratch. Also entered is Ana Abu Ganaba and Jake Doran off 0.5m, Jack Hale and Dhruv Rodrigues-Chico off 0.75m, and Jacob Despard and Gurindervir Singh off 1.25m. Last years winner Harrison Kerr is entered and off 2.5m. Previous winners including Matt Rizzo 3.75m and Isaac Dunmall 6m are also entered.

Who takes it out this year? I'll start us off, Admin's tip is Saye Morris, who won the Waverley Gift earlier this season. Go well Saye!

Excited to see all of your predictions.

Will come back with my tips soon, and generally the marks seem fairly as predicted and straight forward. But I’ve gotta admit 2 surprised me on my initial first glance.

Ryan Tarrant getting 4.5m with a 10.49 100m pb, 21.11 -1.1 200m pb and having already won a classic Gift interstate. That’s some sort of mark having never run in the VAL before.

The other is the young 200/400 runner Tyson Bonney. Gets the novice mark of 6m with pb’s of 10.80, 21.28 and 46.60. Not sure how this is consistent with other first time athletes. Recently an 11, 22 and 49 pb runner was given 5m due to potential. Same age.

Looking forward to your tips/ possible form guide Tim.

Valid points about Tarrant and Bonney, but I agree with Admin about sticking to tips/predictions.

I like a final made up of
Nketia, Rizzo, Morris, Vaitohi, Mekonnen, Antonino

Oops I didn’t read that bit in Admin’s post. Apologies. Can delete my post if not wanted. Just finished setting a market for the event Din. Lots of final chances which is good! All of yours are right in the mix.

I might do what I have done previously and answer anyone’s query on a certain athlete/athletes. Rather than a full form guide which I don’t have time for unfortunately.

Thanks for your posting Tim and Din. As Din mentioned, lets keep this thread to tips/predictions moving forward. Looking forward to seeing the market.

Thanks for removing my post admin
Great to see only “certain post “ stay and truth gets censored

The current marks are provisional/draft only some may change before they draw the heats.

Handicap Cheater wrote:Thanks for removing my post admin
Great to see only “certain post “ stay and truth gets censored

It's got nothing to do with the truth being 'censored'.

I asked for tips/predictions on this thread. Yet you chose (again) instead to personally insult an athlete. Why? I'm not really sure.

You have also been asked to not publicly complain about posts being removed or edited, and once again you have. It seems like this forum isn't the right place for you Handicap Cheater. Despite multiple warnings you've deliberately continued to post without taking into consideration the forum rules.

Your account has been suspended.

Admin.

Was it just me or did Handicap Cheater's account name already prove that he was up to no good! There's no place for handicap cheating in the Victorian Athletic League! Good work Admin

Au revoir Ricky bobby (HC), au revoir

For those eagerly awaiting the betting market, I’ll list the top 20ish chances in the Men’s Gift in handicap order based on the market I’ve set:

Eddie Nketia
Jacob Despard
Michael Hanna
Matt Rizzo
Leonard King
Ryan Tarrant
Mitchell O’Neill
Saye Morris
Jasper Thomas
Antonio Vaitohi
Tyson Bonney
Isaac Dunmall
Massimo Acquaro
James Kermond
Chad Perris
Ryan Ilett
Jack Newman
Endale Mekonnen
Maki Loukeris
Nicholas Antonino
Luke Mitchell

Couple of smokies outside of this group who could final, but those are the top chances in early betting markets.

Women’s market should be done tomorrow I hope.

James Cummings stable to have a big Easter and take the Trifecta, horses for courses, looking for a soft 6
Anamoe ( oops Antonio)
Lacey
Mitchell

Tim how can you leave out Lacey.
If Ryan illet wins I’ll eat my hat

Because I don’t have Lacey in the top 21 chances to win Stawell, that’s how Billy Boy!

Fear not, young Jack will be very successful over the Easter weekend in other distances

Tim love your top 20.

Must be a real competitive year if Chris Vi can’t crack the top 20. Runs a 20.56 over 200m in November and 12.35 adj NYD. A lot can happen in 3 months. Do you have some inside info? (Asking for a mate)?

Someone's clearly taking the pi55.
Must be hitting refresh and voting for themselves.

Isaac Dunmall 6m might be the value pick. Saye Morris most likely to go 12.0ish. James Kermond top 20 ? 11.1 runner on 7m ?

Unfortunately a bit boring creating rules on how the conversation flows. I rather just read from now on.

Soon to retire wrote:Someone's clearly taking the pi55.
Must be hitting refresh and voting for themselves.

Must be, you'd hope not though

My pick is Saye Morris, can't Saye for sure though: I'm gonna spew on Monday when handicap cheaters come out of hibernation! Ive been attending the easter carnival for many years and I am slightly bothered at the corrosion of this sporting event. I say put these scallywags in the naughty corner at the Calcutta.

Sorry to spoil your “value pick” Silva, but Isaac is 2nd favourite for the Gift. Although still may be value if you think he’s the guy! $6ish you’ll be looking at. Hopefully one of the corporates does a market without any help and fluffs it though. Has happened.

Silva wrote:Isaac Dunmall 6m might be the value pick. Saye Morris most likely to go 12.0ish. James Kermond top 20 ? 11.1 runner on 7m ?

Unfortunately a bit boring creating rules on how the conversation flows. I rather just read from now on.  

Having not raced for a significant period of time, there must’ve been a setback. At 100% fitness and form Chris along with a couple of others not listed would be right in the mix to final. I still think someone outside this list may final! Odds aren’t always right

SGOracle233 wrote:Tim love your top 20.

Must be a real competitive year if Chris Vi can’t crack the top 20. Runs a 20.56 over 200m in November and 12.35 adj NYD. A lot can happen in 3 months. Do you have some inside info? (Asking for a mate)?

timrosen35 wrote:Sorry to spoil your “value pick” Silva, but Isaac is 2nd favourite for the Gift. Although still may be value if you think he’s the guy! $6ish you’ll be looking at. Hopefully one of the corporates does a market without any help and fluffs it though. Has happened.

Silva wrote:Isaac Dunmall 6m might be the value pick. Saye Morris most likely to go 12.0ish. James Kermond top 20 ? 11.1 runner on 7m ?

Unfortunately a bit boring creating rules on how the conversation flows. I rather just read from now on.  

Isaac has been under the radar on here, but I will need to know trial form. 6-1 is under the odds. Tiger , Mckennon I would see the market odds. Tiger to me is 10-1 chance, Mckennon and Ant man. I want to see odds.

He isn’t 6-1, that’s $7. He is less than that. So looks like you won’t be having a bet on him

I can tell you the odds…who do you want to know?

Mekonnen $6 Antonino $7 Perris $10. Odds may change depending on betting activity of course. So these odds aren’t gospel.

timrosen35 wrote:He isn’t 6-1, that’s $7.  

Tim you're confused, 6-1 is 6$, so if you put on $10, you get 6 dollars for every dollar invested. I'm predicting that Morris starts at 7-2 or 4-1. So if he starts at 7-2, that means for $10 bet would be return $45, $ 3.5 per $1 . (add the stake)

I can assure you 6-1 (or 6 to 1) is $7. There’s no debate there.

Also a $10 bet at 7-2 returns you $45. You get the $35 you’ve won plus the initial $10 stake. So 7-2 is the same as $4.50 not $3.50.

Hope your tipping is better than your betting knowledge

And I’m telling you the odds of these athletes yet you’re not listening