2023 Stawell 120m Women's Gift

Hastings from May.
Hastings ran 13.681 off 7.75 at Stawell in 2022 in her heat.
She nominated for Terang to test the water , obviously had no intention to run as she didnt nominate for Warrnambool same weekend.
Thought her Father Christmas had come early when she was allocated 6.5 for the starting mark for the season at Terang.
She then went to Waverley where she won and got the bonus of .75
So her mark for Stawell in 7.25 , only down .50 from last season where she carved out 13.681
Hastings is only 20 years of age and if she hasnt improved .50 in a season at that age her Coach shouldnt be coaching.
So come Easter Mon when she scorches down the track in around 13.6 to 13.7 dont cry Cheat.She is simply running off the mark she has been given , her form last season was shown, she has used the bonus system to her advantage , her last run was a win over 70m at the Hills meeting in SA , apart from that she has remained hidden all season.
Running well under ceiling at Stawell last season as a teenager , perhaps her starting mark for this season should have been slightly lower.
Line up and line your pockets.

Don’t think anyone was accusing her of being a cheat SA whisperer. You are the only one to throw that word around. I’d be shocked if she didn’t go quicker than 13.6

Has to be the fav. Anything over $1.50 is value.

Dwight K Schrute

Dwight Schrute wrote:Don’t think anyone was accusing her of being a cheat SA whisperer. You are the only one to throw that word around. I’d be shocked if she didn’t go quicker than 13.6

Has to be the fav. Anything over $1.50 is value.

Dwight K Schrute

Not calling her a cheat what so ever.
I said her form last season was SHOWN.

this is exciting.................
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/olivia-hastings-14769901
Blistering pace for the 60m. 7.77. Jordi McMillan ran 7.6 into a similar wind.(head wind)
Jordi is a sub 11.8 athlete.

gcollie1974 wrote:this is exciting.................
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/olivia-hastings-14769901
Blistering pace for the 60m. 7.77. Jordi McMillan ran 7.6 into a similar wind.(head wind)
Jordi is a sub 11.8 athlete.

Jordi ran 11.60 last week

SA Whisperer wrote:

gcollie1974 wrote:this is exciting.................
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/olivia-hastings-14769901
Blistering pace for the 60m. 7.77. Jordi McMillan ran 7.6 into a similar wind.(head wind)
Jordi is a sub 11.8 athlete.

Jordi ran 11.60 last week

Hasting RPM for 60m in 7.77sec is 0.1295 starting off 7.25m

Watson RPM for 65.75m in 8.26sec is 0.1257 starting off 8.75m

Simple maths boys, Hastings won't be catching Watson, in fact based on RPM's Watson will be running away from Hastings.

The maths doesn't always add up though, I guess we'll have to wait and see who brings their A game over Easter weekend.

gcollie1974 wrote:

Nick De Fibre wrote:

SA Whisperer wrote:

gcollie1974 wrote:this is exciting.................
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/olivia-hastings-14769901
Blistering pace for the 60m. 7.77. Jordi McMillan ran 7.6 into a similar wind.(head wind)
Jordi is a sub 11.8 athlete.

Jordi ran 11.60 last week

Hasting RPM for 60m in 7.77sec is 0.1295 starting off 7.25m

Watson RPM for 65.75m in 8.26sec is 0.1257 starting off 8.75m

Simple maths boys, Hastings won't be catching Watson, in fact based on RPM's Watson will be running away from Hastings.

The maths doesn't always add up though, I guess we'll have to wait and see who brings their A game over Easter weekend.

Does that suggest the handicap is flawed. Changing the game or playing the game.

Nick De Fibre wrote:

SA Whisperer wrote:

gcollie1974 wrote:this is exciting.................
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/olivia-hastings-14769901
Blistering pace for the 60m. 7.77. Jordi McMillan ran 7.6 into a similar wind.(head wind)
Jordi is a sub 11.8 athlete.

Jordi ran 11.60 last week

Hasting RPM for 60m in 7.77sec is 0.1295 starting off 7.25m

Watson RPM for 65.75m in 8.26sec is 0.1257 starting off 8.75m

Simple maths boys, Hastings won't be catching Watson, in fact based on RPM's Watson will be running away from Hastings.

The maths doesn't always add up though, I guess we'll have to wait and see who brings their A game over Easter weekend.

 

The RPM maths doesn't work out when comparing different distances, so if the same runner running 65.75 v 60m. RPM will be higher due more further distance on the fly. 
 
If this is the same Layla Watson, she run 24.5 twice this season, which correlates to 11.8-11.9 speed for the girls. The 7.71 into the slight headwind should be close to 12.0- 11.95
 
Last seasons Olivia Hastings 7.75m SG SF run , last year, she got past but tightened up mid race. 
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52SLJjvF6wE&ab_channel=VicPascoe
 
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/layla-watson-14883575
 
Both girls seem to be of similar speed over the 100,200,400. I am favouring Watson at the marks and based on the 24.5s. But when you line up pbs Ellie Beer is on another stratosphere, she's run 23.6 & 52.5, 53.0 this season. I watched the 400m national final, looks like she ran like a 300m time trial, went out very hard.  Beer looked more like 400/800 type as junior but looks like Robbo has got some more power and speed in those legs. Starts the season on 2.5 ends on 5m. Interesting observation Beer rpm at Ballarat .1283 for the 70m at Ballarat, using the raw conversion this gives 7.69 for 60m. This time of year she is probably going 7.55- 7.60 for 60m, that means she pulls off 1m from both Hastings and Oliver first 60m. Approx has to make another 2.75m on Watson over the last 45m to catch Watson. If Beer  can split 7.55- 7.60 first 60m, she' ll get within  0.25m of Watson. 
 
I think the wind gauge was not accurate in the Ballarat 70m women's final, Watson  ran raw 8.4s , rpm .127. That  RPM of .125 , would mean she’s running 11.7. Watson also ran RPM of .128 at Beachside 70m final. You could flip my points and conclude that Watson is unbeatable, I kind of get that impression when comparing RPMs of 70m but considering Beer's pb's over 200 & 400m, I really think we might be seeing some major improvements by her over easter.

Nick De Fibre wrote:

SA Whisperer wrote:

gcollie1974 wrote:this is exciting.................
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/olivia-hastings-14769901
Blistering pace for the 60m. 7.77. Jordi McMillan ran 7.6 into a similar wind.(head wind)
Jordi is a sub 11.8 athlete.

Jordi ran 11.60 last week

Hasting RPM for 60m in 7.77sec is 0.1295 starting off 7.25m

Watson RPM for 65.75m in 8.26sec is 0.1257 starting off 8.75m

Simple maths boys, Hastings won't be catching Watson, in fact based on RPM's Watson will be running away from Hastings.

The maths doesn't always add up though, I guess we'll have to wait and see who brings their A game over Easter weekend.

Would love to agree with you old friend as she has been one of my top selections since her Warrnambool run, but I really wish she wasn't in Brisbane last week running 400s. Hard to imagine shes gonna be as fresh as Hastings, Pasquali, etc.

Norm the Form wrote:

Nick De Fibre wrote:

SA Whisperer wrote:

gcollie1974 wrote:this is exciting.................
https://worldathletics.org/athletes/australia/olivia-hastings-14769901
Blistering pace for the 60m. 7.77. Jordi McMillan ran 7.6 into a similar wind.(head wind)
Jordi is a sub 11.8 athlete.

Jordi ran 11.60 last week

Hasting RPM for 60m in 7.77sec is 0.1295 starting off 7.25m

Watson RPM for 65.75m in 8.26sec is 0.1257 starting off 8.75m

Simple maths boys, Hastings won't be catching Watson, in fact based on RPM's Watson will be running away from Hastings.

The maths doesn't always add up though, I guess we'll have to wait and see who brings their A game over Easter weekend.

Would love to agree with you old friend as she has been one of my top selections since her Warrnambool run, but I really wish she wasn't in Brisbane last week running 400s. Hard to imagine shes gonna be as fresh as Hastings, Pasquali, etc.

NTF, I agree that a couple of 200/400 runs last weekend isn't ideal lead up for most athletes.

Layla is only 17yo and I'm sure that the exuberance of youth will go a long way in making sure that she is okay to compete to her best on the weekend.

I'm sure that Rob and Wayne will have given Layla a very easy week this week, she'll no doubt be jumping out of her skin in anticipation to hit the track at Central Park.

Looking back over Layla's entire VAL history over 100/120 paints a very interesting picture, at 17yo she is a 2 x Warrnambool Gift winner yet still comes to Stawell off 8.75m, imagine if she still had the 10.50m she had last year.

Brilliant management and coaching by DPS.

I might throw another name at you blokes... Tori West.

Heptathlete with an average 100m pb.. but she did run a 24.07 200m back in 2020 (probably after completing all the other Heptathlon events on the same day).
If she's got a little bit more in the tank, 6m might be a really good mark for her.

In fact, calculations even have her going 13.7 ish

Thoughts Tim, Nick D???


EDIT: after further consideration, she is now in my top 6. Someone that has ability like her sitting on the novice mark is very generous. 13.65 is my prediction

If she has recovered from the Hep she is a final chance off 6m. Off the original mark of 7.75m, she was a winning hope yep.

What's your market on her Tim?

Pasquali on averages has not shown the same speed over 70m compared to Hastings and Watson. She had 10m in the open 70m at Castlemaine and was a bit of the pace.  I think she's under the odds, whilst no market is up yet.   

Tori West is 27 yo and pb of 12.2 , would need to be 11.6 to 11.75 to final from that mark.

Silva wrote:Pasquali on averages has not shown the same speed over 70m compared to Hastings and Watson. She had 10m in the open 70m at Castlemaine and was a bit of the pace.  I think she's under the odds, whilst no market is up yet.   

Tori West is 27 yo and pb of 12.2 , would need to be 11.6 to 11.75 to final from that mark.

Cmon Silva I thought you were better than that! Try and look past that outdated 100m PB and look at that juicy 24 second 200. That time alone means she’s AT LEAST a 12 second runner. Probably quicker..

WHERE IS THE BETTING MARKET

Norm the Form wrote:

Silva wrote:Pasquali on averages has not shown the same speed over 70m compared to Hastings and Watson. She had 10m in the open 70m at Castlemaine and was a bit of the pace.  I think she's under the odds, whilst no market is up yet.   

Tori West is 27 yo and pb of 12.2 , would need to be 11.6 to 11.75 to final from that mark.

Cmon Silva I thought you were better than that! Try and look past that outdated 100m PB and look at that juicy 24 second 200. That time alone means she’s AT LEAST a 12 second runner. Probably quicker..

WHERE IS THE BETTING MARKET

My logic is  at 27 if you haven't broken 12s , then unlikely will happen. She probably been doing athletics since she was a teen and would have had plenty of chances.  Also I agree 24.0 is sub 12s but she might hold speed over efficiently second half of race in the 200m.

Soon to retire wrote:What's your market on her Tim?

What do you think it should be STR… you’ve given us all the info on your boy Saye. Do you have the inside word on Tori ??

How did she trial ?

She was trialing very well in the betting ring until you mentioned her on here. Way to ruin her odds. .
You have the inside word it seems.

^^ This is literally what this forum is. Who are your tips, dark horses etc .

Seems you’re happy to out people on your other accounts who aren’t associated with your group.

Fact. This is my only account.
Fact. Tori went from 20/1 to 3/1 after norm mentioned her on here.
Fact. I do not have a bet on her.

Yep everyone post what ever. Mention who ever you want. But Norms timing is impeccable.
Norm the in-form-ed Bookies.

See you at Stawell. Come say hello
Out.

I just goggled her name like I have for every other athlete. It stuck out to me as she is one of the only girls with a 24 second 200m on 6m or more. Doesn’t take an ‘inside word’ to work that one out.

West hasn’t been able to make a final before off bigger marks. I can’t see her winning this off 6m

Just reading the other handicap events.
Watson 3.25m. Which is behind Pasqualli in the 70 and many other good athletes. West is 1.25m in front of Watson for the 70m
120 Watson is in front. The handicappers know what they are doing but allow athletes to play the game. May is the same way back on 3.75m
Will post a great article.
Absolute Mockery. Too much money and history for this to occur. Clean it up.
#playingthegame

https://insideathletics.com.au/blog/go-the-red-the-difficulty-of-winning-the-stawell-gift-as-a-backmarker/

Lucy Carter (finalist last year) is in with a big show this year in light of her strength in winning the Devonport Gift win over 400 metres at Christmas.