2024 Keilor 120m Womens Gift

The 2024 Keilor 120m Womens gift sees Maddie Coates return as the backmarker running from 2.25m. She'll be joined at the back by Helen Pretorius from 2.75, Grace O'Dwyer and Jess Payne both from 3.25m and Ellie Keratianos from 5.75m.

Lucy Carter will be looking for another hit out after receiving a 0.25m lift from Ballarat to 8m. The one to watch in my opinion will be youngster Jemma Pollard from a mark of 8.5m who ran a blistering 53.44 at the ACT Championships recently. Very excited to watch Pollard's career! Henderson is entered in any other event at Keilor... maybe targeting this one and could be right in the mix off 9m.

Aris Patsouris could be there abouts from 11m while Stephanie Jinks of 12.5m would be worth considering as well after a 13.8 at Ballarat last weekend.

Looking forward to this race but even more so... who's running the skins!?!?

Love your work Donatello!

Jemma Pollard SURELY the one. 4th in the infamous Warrnambool final behind Mannix-Power, Phillips and Newton. Goes up half a metre here too!

Norm the Form wrote:Love your work Donatello!

Jemma Pollard SURELY the one. 4th in the infamous Warrnambool final behind Mannix-Power, Phillips and Newton. Goes up half a metre here too!

Norm read the Form a little better mate. Pollard 8.5m from 8.5m at the Bool means she hasn’t gone up 0.5m. But still a great chance in my opinion

1st Layla Watson (if she runs)
2nd Jemma Pollard
3rd Olivia Barry
then
H. Martin
J. Payne
G. Carter (if she runs)
S. Jinks
I. Nobbs

Thatsthestats wrote:

Norm the Form wrote:Love your work Donatello!

Jemma Pollard SURELY the one. 4th in the infamous Warrnambool final behind Mannix-Power, Phillips and Newton. Goes up half a metre here too!

Norm read the Form a little better mate. Pollard 8.5m from 8.5m at the Bool means she hasn’t gone up 0.5m. But still a great chance in my opinion

Sorry young fella, it was a bit late in the night for this old timer to be making a post.
Half a metre lift or not, she’s winning this week.

Okay tipping it’s a 6 women final

Miriam Suarez Jury
Gemma Pollard   1st
Olivia Barry   2nd
Halle Martin   3rd
Steph Jinks
Ruby Crisp

Pretty close to my final statsman.

Based on recent VAL runs, Payne should be in the equation, but her run yesterday may cost her.

Hope Martin and Barry get a win over the next few weeks, as they have worked hard all year and are deserving of a sash

Payne
Suarez Jury 2nd
Pollard 1st
Barry
Martin 3rd
Jinks

How the fk. Does a 23.98 200m runner get a 8.5m handicap. 53 sec 400m runners don't run 12.91 for a 100m.

Game over.

Celebrate before the Line wrote:How the fk. Does a 23.98 200m runner get a 8.5m handicap. 53 sec 400m runners don't run 12.91 for a 100m.

Game over.

Well her first ever gift run she was given 6.25 in the Geelong 100, that equates to 7.5 in the 120 so that certainly helps.

0.1199 (200m) and 0.1240 would suggest a handicap of just under 6m not 8.5m!

Yarra, whilst the mark for Pollard is a generous one in my opinion as well, you cannot just make up RPM data.

Her 200m pb if we want to use that is 23.94 +2.0.

Under the current VAL rules, this becomes 24.44 after wind and track adjustments. This is an RPM of 0.1222 not 0.1199 as you’ve suggested.

This would leave her ceiling mark as 7.75m based simply off this one run.

A great win by Pollard after demonstrating her speed behind 3 other Gift winners at Warrnambool.
Aside from her pbs in various distances, as suggested she has only moved 0.25m on progressions alone since her first run at Stawell in 2021. Another 0.75m lift due to ceiling time being lowered.
The issue is her original mark being 7.5m, not the novice 6m. A 1.50m headstart for a talented junior OGA athlete, looking to progress in speed with maturity.
Interestingly, she started on the 20m novice in the 400m in 2021. This season she is back on 8m, with a 2nd place at Terang. At least this demonstrates the handicapper is considering pbs and improvement and has licence to adjust back under OGA guildelines.

Reply RPM Pollard, if we adjust her 200m time to 24.4, that still equates to RPM of .1200 for the 100 at worst. Clearly faster than 24.4 though. Whilst dividing 200/23.9 .1198 is the incorrect method in formulating best RPM, but it's not far off what her mark should be. Review Wang Lecouteur performances over the 200m and 100m as a reference point, she's run 12.07 into -1.7 and 200s have in in the mid 24.s

Anyone with some common sense and knowledge of the sport can deduce she should be marginally in front of the novice mark. Very obvious agenda going on, increase numbers by increasing incentive to amateur runners. You can see the pattern and of course it can be spun to fit whatever narrative being pushed.

You will have some that defend the system. But essentially there has been a parachuting of runners to claim the biggest prize in the sport. This will have a long-term chilling effect for the main stayers in the VAL.  It's not hard to cherry pick data to bolster weak arguments.